The USD is next to DROP, and commodities will POP again:
http://www.europac.net/archives.asp#
Friday, November 28, 2008
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
***STOCK TIP***
I just received this from my broker. I normally don't pass stock tips on, but I thought this exception would be okay. If you hold any of the following stocks, you may want to review:
American Can Co.
Interstate Water Co.
National Gas Co.
Northern Tissue Co.
Due to the uncertain market conditions at this present time, we advise you to sit tight on your American Can, hold your Water and let go of your Gas. You may be interested to know that Northern Tissue touched a new bottom today, and millions were wiped clean.
American Can Co.
Interstate Water Co.
National Gas Co.
Northern Tissue Co.
Due to the uncertain market conditions at this present time, we advise you to sit tight on your American Can, hold your Water and let go of your Gas. You may be interested to know that Northern Tissue touched a new bottom today, and millions were wiped clean.
Thursday, November 6, 2008
Thursday, October 2, 2008
A step back
Sometimes you have to take a step back to eliminate the 'noise'.
I may be way off... but this is what I foresee...
I may be way off... but this is what I foresee...
Monday, September 29, 2008
$VIX spike
The $VIX is currently at levels it hasn't seen since 2002.
In the past two years, there have been 6 "spikes" in the VIX... corresponding directly with temporary market bottoms.
Spike #7 is happening now (today and should continue tomorrow). Despite talk of the sky falling, the markets will live to see another day. If you've got the stomach, this is a great time to buy virtually anything and everything, for the SHORT TERM. A name like RIMM, which has recently been taken out to the woodshed, or AAPL, or CME, or GOOG, etc. You get the idea.
Buy some stock, and sell some upside calls as the premiums are really high right now. Or just buy some calls with at least 2-3 months time value.
These truly are historic times. Enjoy the ride.
In the past two years, there have been 6 "spikes" in the VIX... corresponding directly with temporary market bottoms.
Spike #7 is happening now (today and should continue tomorrow). Despite talk of the sky falling, the markets will live to see another day. If you've got the stomach, this is a great time to buy virtually anything and everything, for the SHORT TERM. A name like RIMM, which has recently been taken out to the woodshed, or AAPL, or CME, or GOOG, etc. You get the idea.
Buy some stock, and sell some upside calls as the premiums are really high right now. Or just buy some calls with at least 2-3 months time value.
These truly are historic times. Enjoy the ride.
Monday, September 15, 2008
Rate cut?
The market is begging for one, with the S&P500 down close to 5% today, and the VIX spiking above the 30 handle.
Look for some "surprise" news tomorrow or in the coming days, sparking a rally that will take us to the election and some.
This credit mess is far from over, but for the short term, its time to buy calls...
Look for some "surprise" news tomorrow or in the coming days, sparking a rally that will take us to the election and some.
This credit mess is far from over, but for the short term, its time to buy calls...
Friday, September 12, 2008
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
Survival Pool
My goal is to get past week frickin 1 this year...
http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/survival
Group ID: 3440
Password: beer
http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/survival
Group ID: 3440
Password: beer
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
The Great Bear Funds
What are "bear funds?" They're funds that sell short, buy put options, use leverage, or employ other strategies to increase in value as stocks decrease in value. Out of a universe of 12,500+ mutual funds and about 2,000 ETFs offered for sale in the US, there ain't many of 'em! Please read the investment policy and other details of each fund below:
http://www.bearmarketcentral.com/mutualfunds.htm
http://www.bearmarketcentral.com/mutualfunds.htm
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Monday, May 12, 2008
$TSX facing tough resistance
The TSX has had a massive run since March 20th, and is now up against some massive resistance. It's not a coincidence that commodities are overbought and the TSX is at this level, as this index is closely tied to energy and metals.
I'm banking on a triple top... let's see how it plays out...
Keeping with that topic, check out Bespoke's current commodity snapshot. All signs are pointing towards oil cruisin for a bruisin...
I'm banking on a triple top... let's see how it plays out...
Keeping with that topic, check out Bespoke's current commodity snapshot. All signs are pointing towards oil cruisin for a bruisin...
Friday, May 2, 2008
$SPX: 1406 - 1410
What was once support on the S&P500 is now going to be tested as resistance. All indices, currencies, commodities, are at critical technical levels. What's needed now is some news to move the markets... and we have just that in the jobs report, which comes out at 8:30 a.m.
You should be able to play this as a straddle, and buy a breakout, or sell a breakdown. And that can be done via the indices, or via oil, the Euro... take your pick!
Beware of a fakeout, as I'm sure there will be a stop killer move in the wrong direction.
If this level holds as resistance, the volatility cycle should start up again with a move up in the VIX.
Check the ticker for the latest...
You should be able to play this as a straddle, and buy a breakout, or sell a breakdown. And that can be done via the indices, or via oil, the Euro... take your pick!
Beware of a fakeout, as I'm sure there will be a stop killer move in the wrong direction.
If this level holds as resistance, the volatility cycle should start up again with a move up in the VIX.
Check the ticker for the latest...
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
2:15pm
Markets may not take direction today, but they'll definitely move after the Fed announcement.
All the major indices look something like this:
Should be an interesting afternoon!
All the major indices look something like this:
Should be an interesting afternoon!
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
$DXY controls the fate of USO, FXE
Where the Euro (FXE), and Crude (USO) go next depends on which way the U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) breaks out.
We're almost there...
We're almost there...
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
GOOG poised for a move
Check out this chart of Google (GOOG).
Looks like a classic head and shoulder pattern. If that's correct, that HUGE gap could get filled in a hurry. If we get a break above current levels ($560), my first target would be $616.
Check the ticker for the latest...
Looks like a classic head and shoulder pattern. If that's correct, that HUGE gap could get filled in a hurry. If we get a break above current levels ($560), my first target would be $616.
Check the ticker for the latest...
Monday, April 21, 2008
Another Dixie Breakdown?
The Euro (FXE) and Oil (USO) may have more upside left in them if the dixie heads south through this possible triangle/wedge...
Keep an eye on the US Dollar Index ($DXY) as it is the cause for the runs in the Euro and Oil, as well as virtually all the other commodities that are trading at multi-year and all-time highs.
Check the ticker for the latest...
Keep an eye on the US Dollar Index ($DXY) as it is the cause for the runs in the Euro and Oil, as well as virtually all the other commodities that are trading at multi-year and all-time highs.
Check the ticker for the latest...
Critical week for indices: $INDU, $SPX, $VIX, $XMI, QQQQ, SPY
All indices surged up to important critical points, and we're basically at an interim turning point. The markets will either bump their head here on resistance, which would confirm a longer term downtrend, or break through and kill the last of the shorts.
Breaking up and through these levels, especially if done with gusto, would be very bullish for the stock market in general, and could easily have us at new all-time highs again.
A real pro would wait for confirmation before taking a position. The major market index ($XMI) still has a percent and change of room to the upside before the top trendline is tested... which could potentially allow for a slight blow-up of the indices in general, to squeeze the last of the shorts.
Interesting times to say the least, as the technical stars have aligned. Fow what it's worth, what I think will happen will be either one of the following scenarios:
(1) another financial bombshell drops (this week), causing a spike in volatility... making the current levels act as resistance... thus beginning a new leg/wave downward
(2) a number of companies come out and blow out earnings, like GOOG did last week, taking the indices up and through current levels, setting the stage for a powerful rally as the shorts will have to duck and cover (literally)
I have a hard time believing that the current credit mess can be dismissed so quickly and easily, which makes me bearish, and if I had to take a position, I'd have to think scenario 1 will play out.
But, if the indices clearly break up and through these levels this week, I will not hesitate to go long.
Get your fingers ready to pull the trigger either way. Should be a fun week!
Check the ticker for the latest...
Breaking up and through these levels, especially if done with gusto, would be very bullish for the stock market in general, and could easily have us at new all-time highs again.
A real pro would wait for confirmation before taking a position. The major market index ($XMI) still has a percent and change of room to the upside before the top trendline is tested... which could potentially allow for a slight blow-up of the indices in general, to squeeze the last of the shorts.
Interesting times to say the least, as the technical stars have aligned. Fow what it's worth, what I think will happen will be either one of the following scenarios:
(1) another financial bombshell drops (this week), causing a spike in volatility... making the current levels act as resistance... thus beginning a new leg/wave downward
(2) a number of companies come out and blow out earnings, like GOOG did last week, taking the indices up and through current levels, setting the stage for a powerful rally as the shorts will have to duck and cover (literally)
I have a hard time believing that the current credit mess can be dismissed so quickly and easily, which makes me bearish, and if I had to take a position, I'd have to think scenario 1 will play out.
But, if the indices clearly break up and through these levels this week, I will not hesitate to go long.
Get your fingers ready to pull the trigger either way. Should be a fun week!
Check the ticker for the latest...
Saturday, April 5, 2008
Friday, April 4, 2008
Yet another chance to short the USO?
The (USO) is inching up again... if it gets up to the $87-$88 level... I'll be buying puts on it... again.
Check the ticker for the latest...
Check the ticker for the latest...
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
Triple top? Or breakthrough?
If you look at the VIX, it hasn't stayed below the 200 mva for more than 3-5 days since Feb of 2007. The VIX touched this mva yesterday. Friday just so happens to be 3 days after the VIX touched down. Funny how the jobs report is scheduled to come out that day. To say we're at a critical technical point is an understatement.
I believe this week will act as an interim 'top' and it should start another wave of volatility. Hopefully. It'll be more fun that way!
I believe this week will act as an interim 'top' and it should start another wave of volatility. Hopefully. It'll be more fun that way!
Friday, March 28, 2008
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
SPY, QQQQ at critical levels
The S&P500 closed at 1310.50 on Jan 22/08.
Today's low (so far) was 1310.49.
Coincidence? Perhaps. But likely not.
Awesome long setups popping up everywhere, with stops below the Jan 22 lows.
Check the ticker for the latest...
Today's low (so far) was 1310.49.
Coincidence? Perhaps. But likely not.
Awesome long setups popping up everywhere, with stops below the Jan 22 lows.
Check the ticker for the latest...
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Almost there...
The major markets have moved up nicely the last few days and we're getting close to the top of the trading range again. 1406 is on the radar, but we might get a slight pullback before a re-test of this level on the S&P500. Another nice short setup seems to be developing...
Thursday, February 7, 2008
QQQQ, SPY, $SPX, $INDU, $XMI....
Take your pick of any index ETF... and you have yourself a nice short term trade to the upside, with a stop just below the Jan 23rd lows.
If 1310 holds up on the S&P500 this week, then we can easily see a bounce back to 1375, and the critical 1406.
Overall I'm still bearish on the markets, but I feel that 1406 has to be tested as resistance before the next leg down.
It's a short-term trader's market as long as the $SPX is confined to the trading range I mentioned in my last post.
Check the ticker for the latest...
If 1310 holds up on the S&P500 this week, then we can easily see a bounce back to 1375, and the critical 1406.
Overall I'm still bearish on the markets, but I feel that 1406 has to be tested as resistance before the next leg down.
It's a short-term trader's market as long as the $SPX is confined to the trading range I mentioned in my last post.
Check the ticker for the latest...
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Range bound...
The S&P500 seems to have formed a trading range between 1310 and 1380. If this is the case, look for a move south in the next few days, to see if support can be found around 1325.
Overall the markets seem to be in no man's land. 1406 will surely provide some resistance to the upside. And last week the bottom was set at 1275. A move above or below these key levels will determine where we go next.
Jobs report is up tomorrow... it may be what leads us lower so that 1325 can be tested.
Check the ticker for the latest...
Overall the markets seem to be in no man's land. 1406 will surely provide some resistance to the upside. And last week the bottom was set at 1275. A move above or below these key levels will determine where we go next.
Jobs report is up tomorrow... it may be what leads us lower so that 1325 can be tested.
Check the ticker for the latest...
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
0.25 or 0.50??
About an hour to go, and we'll know.
The bond markets are saying there's better than a 80% chance that it's 0.50
Typically, a cut would help the markets... but 1.25% in a week signals that something is seriously wrong with the economy... and that could give da bears a shot in the arm.
I'm still playing wait-and-see... it should be an interesting afternoon, to say the least.
The bond markets are saying there's better than a 80% chance that it's 0.50
Typically, a cut would help the markets... but 1.25% in a week signals that something is seriously wrong with the economy... and that could give da bears a shot in the arm.
I'm still playing wait-and-see... it should be an interesting afternoon, to say the least.
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
The Hardest Thing
I think the hardest thing to do is to buy on weakness.
When the S&P500 broke through the critical 1490 in August, we saw 6 straight days of declines before we saw a bottom.
Today is the 6th straight day of declines, after the S&P500 broke through the critical 1406.
Today may or may not be the temporary bottom, but I'm a buyer.
Check the ticker for the latest...
When the S&P500 broke through the critical 1490 in August, we saw 6 straight days of declines before we saw a bottom.
Today is the 6th straight day of declines, after the S&P500 broke through the critical 1406.
Today may or may not be the temporary bottom, but I'm a buyer.
Check the ticker for the latest...
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
What does fear smell like?
Ask any trader, and they'll tell you today reeks of it. Despite the 'emergency' rate cut by the Fed, look for a massive spike down today. How today closes will be crucial.
What should one do on a day like today?
Best bet today: sell the VIX. Volatility is going to spike today, but things will, eventually, settle down. Take advantage of leverage with options.
Look for 'good' companies that have been punished for no real reason and start averaging in. You're not going to pick the bottom. So might as well buy a little today.
Should be a great trading day for some ultra ETF's as well. Watch them closely.
What should one do on a day like today?
Best bet today: sell the VIX. Volatility is going to spike today, but things will, eventually, settle down. Take advantage of leverage with options.
Look for 'good' companies that have been punished for no real reason and start averaging in. You're not going to pick the bottom. So might as well buy a little today.
Should be a great trading day for some ultra ETF's as well. Watch them closely.
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